Getting it right -- and wrong. How I predicted last season's Celtic fortunes

Football predictions are great. They are usually made with not one iota of insight or expertise and are therefore usually wrong.

On the plus side, the majority of people are blessed with an inability to recall the screeds of nonsense written before a season starts so it's a relatively hazard-free pastime.

But not for this blogger, dear reader (sorry!). I am proud of my wrongness and unbearably smug on those occasions when I am right. Fortunately, that happens with a frequency that allows my acquaintances to find me tolerable.

But here's what I said and I think you'll find it was largely unremarkable.

After that build-up, presumably you are excited, so without further delay...

The Treble

“Firstly, targeting the treble is usually ridiculous. Don’t get this wrong – Celtic should always intend to win any domestic tournament the club enters. But to expect to win all three again is just foolish....
“It can be done but probably won’t. If Celtic end another season unbeaten, we should all wait for the space ships to take us away from this doomed planet as it would surely be a sign that the powers that kept the world turning were broken.”

Spectacularly, gloriously, joyously wrong! But not one to be ashamed of.

Anyway, who would want to be proved right?

“But to win the League and do so comfortably must be the number one target. The 'comfort' part is important. Daylight between Celtic and Aberdeen (probably 15-20 points at the season’s end) takes pressure off players, allows some to be rested for what should be the late rounds of the Scottish Cup and lets Brendan Rodgers preserve some of the key performers by sparing them the last 15-30 minutes of games when their bodies are spent.”

Most of the above was a target, rather than a prediction, with the expected 15-20 points based on previous performances and an expectation that the squad would perform even better than last season.

The league win was still relatively comfortable but not in a way that allowed us to rest players much.

As for the points scored, the prediction was as follows:

1st Celtic P 38 W 29 D 6 L 3 Pts 93

Actual Result:

1 Celtic P 38 W 24 D 10 L 4 Pts 82
2 Aberdeen P 38 W 22 D 7 L 9 Pts 73

Perhaps the most pertinent point worthy of note is that it was Celtic's league performance, not Aberdeen's, which was short of the expectations that had already been tempered from the previous season's 106 points, unbeaten after only four draws and no defeats.

That was largely due to the introduction of a good Hibs side and a radically-improved Kilmarnock, the latter of which could not have been predicted at the time.

Also, notably, Aberdeen actually finished three points worse off than the previous season, in which they had reached and lost two cup finals.

So, it really was a matter of Celtic taking a step backwards from the incredible heights of the Invincibles season, albeit a slightly bigger one than could have reasonably been anticipated.

Scottish Cup

“Having (hopefully) won the league in April, we should be red hot favourites to lift the Scottish Cup to make it a double.
By that time, we should be able to focus on the late rounds with the luxury of not needing points or defending an unbeaten run.
Who would we face in the final? Probably Aberdeen or Hibs, who I expect to make a real go of it in their return to the top division, possibly finishing third behind Aberdeen.”

This was an easy enough prediction, though many pundits were less optimistic about Hibs' prospects (who eventually finished fourth).

Motherwell booting their way to the final was never on the radar and Hibs lost in the fourth round to Hearts, while the Dons went out to Well in the semis.

League Cup

“This is the least prestigious of the three tournaments and the one most likely to lead to disappointment, ending any hopes of back-to-back trebles.
“Again, Aberdeen or Hibs seem like the most probable winners, but any team in the top flight has a chance, including the two smaller Glasgow clubs.
“The major reason for this is that Celtic are likely to be heavily-involved in European competition and strongly focussed on the League campaign. Something usually gives in those circumstances, with players on the fringes of the first team likely to feature.
“So, with Celtic’s the scalp that everyone wants to take, a “shock” exit around the semis or quarter-finals seems a strong possibility.“

Nope, though the logic seems sound enough and the team did exceptionally well to balance all those domestic and European duties an win the cup.

Europe

“We are very good, our improvement has been beyond what just about any of us could ever have hoped for – but the gap in the league table doesn’t reflect how close we are to being a top European side....
Put your cuppa down because we’re not up to that standard – yet. But we’ll get better.
The thing about playing significantly inferior teams four times is that you can emphasise your (notional) 40% superiority four times a season. Celtic were 30 points better than the second-placed team but how well would Aberdeen do in any of the top German, Spanish, Italian, French or English leagues?
We should realistically aim to qualify for the group stages and then be playing for 3 or 4th place. And that’s where I think we’ll be."

Not bad but not so hard to predict, either, for those of us keeping our feet on the ground.

Summary

“So, for next season: a League and Scottish Cup double with a 3rd-place finish in the Champions League and a respectable showing in the Europa.”

Looking back on the season, you could argue that we did better or worse than expected, which is as convenient a way of hedging your bets as you can get.

What do I predict for next season?

Now, that's another story...--