Thursday, June 01, 2017

What now for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers? Pt 2 How to make the best in Scotland better

If you’re a Celtic fan reading this (and if you’re a fan of any other team: ha, ha, nae luck!) you’ll still have that warm fuzzy feeling.

We celebrated the 50-year anniversary of the Lisbon Lions with a season that made its own history. In fact, we may have to change the Scotty Sinclair song to squeeze in the words: invincible, infrangible,

But, as was said in the first part of this blog, we are good – the best in Scotland by as many country miles as separate Glasgow and Aberdeen, taking the scenic route – but not anything like the clichéd “finished product”.

That part is academic – the best teams never are.

However, the mind-boggling transformation of Celtic is, perhaps, lending credence to unrealistic appraisals of our squad. The upward curve of Celtic’s quality has been so sharp that it may seem to be pointing to the heavens.

But we all know the dangers of expecting moonbeams of success.

So, when the ecstasy gives way to cold, hard analysis (which will undoubtedly have been going on for the past 12 months), it’s a good time to look at what we may need to move to the next stage of development.

It can’t be all champagne and shamrocks. (I’ve already slapped my own face for that but can’t bring myself to delete it.)

So, realistically, who will be in and who will be out next season?

In Goal

No prizes for guessing that Craig Gordon will be our number 1.

Craig has seen off the challenge from Dorus De Vries, upped his game in terms of ball distribution and been an exceptional performer for three years and, at 34, could play for six-to-ten years, based on current trends for goalkeepers, fitness and form permitting.

Less clear is who will deputise.

Brendan Rodgers knows De Vries well but there was little to suggest in his first-team spell that he still retained whatever it was that he once had. To be fair to Dorus, he was playing in a team that was still learning to defend properly but he had done little to inspire confidence.

Likewise, Logan Bailly has been around without ever seriously looking like an alternative between the sticks.

Brendan has alluded to some young goalkeeping talent in the ranks but you can expect either a promotion from within or a signing to provide assurance, should Gordon be injured or need rest.

Defence

Like squeezing the toothpaste tube, let’s start in the middle.

What a transformation 12 months brings!

From a team that could attack but not defend, Celtic fans got – whisper it – confidence in the defence. That was thanks in no small part to Kolo Toure.

Kolo didn’t play so many games and he made a few mistakes, which he owned up to like the great professional that he is.

But, to this spectator, his contribution was the catalyst to that unbeaten season. If, as Brendan says, he was brought in to assist Scott Brown in leading the team, it was his sorting out of the defence that was, perhaps, the defining moment of Celtic’s season.

You wouldn’t have to be a football analyst to twig to the fact that the guy who had done it all and was directing less experienced defenders was making an enormous contribution. But his fleeting appearances lately suggest that his role next season will primarily be a coaching one, rather than on the field.

We have seen the most-improved player at Celtic Park Dedryck Boyata and Jozo Šimunović establish themselves as the first-choice pairing in central defence and they look to have huge potential.

While Jozo always looked like a class act, there were serious doubts about his fitness before this season. Dedryck, on the other hand, evidently had ability that was all-but negated by lapses in concentration.

What we now have is a central two who look like they can grow to be something special, Dedryck is the player most charged with bringing the ball forward from defence and he has evident power as well as being a threat when attacking corners.

Jozo appears to be one of those “low-pulse-rate” defenders who keeps calm when the pressure is on – well-illustrated by that precise challenge against an on-rushing Kenny Miller, which so troubled some minor Sky commentator.

But who else? Obviously, Erik Sviatchenko remains a significant part of the team and will challenge the two men currently in possession fiercely. Brendan is on record as saying that any player coming into the team will have a chance to keep the jersey and, if Sviatchenko’s stock has dropped a little in recent months, it is largely due to the technical improvements in Boyata and Šimunović’s games.

There is no reason to believe that Erik cannot up his game even further.

However, a gap remains. There will be an early assessment of Kristofer Ajer’s readiness to be part of the “four” (given that, favouring a small squad, Brendan Rodgers can be expected to roughly follow the “two players for each position” model.)

Ajer would be many fans’ first choice and, as long as his major lessons from Kilmarnock have been how to avoid flying elbows and nothing to do with nutrition, he has a real chance.

If the assessment is negative, the market awaits.

At left-back, the story is one of joy in that Kieran Tierney is a player to envy. At 19, we should spare him the hyperbole but let’s just say, in the language of cheesy martial arts magazines: “This guy’s good – and I mean REAL good!”
Young, already brilliant, getting better, abundant technique, Celtic through-and-through, already committed to us. We have a player!

But we also need back-up.

Emilio Izaguirre is loved by most Celtic supporters for a reason. His passion, his flying runs down the wing (especially when he first signed), his smile, his love of the club. He’s a damned good player and all-round good guy who will be fondly remembered at Celtic Park for many years to come.

But will he play much? Probably not.

Emilio has great qualities and deserves his place in the current squad but the positional sense as well as quick control and crisp short passing as well as crossing may not be his strong suit.

But how do you fill the role of challenger to one of the best young defensive talents in the European game? It’s a huge challenge.

Not to have an effective replacement risks making Kieran the sort of target that he was in the Scottish Cup Final – take him out of the game and you negate a huge part of Celtic’s potential.

For any Champions League campaign, a quality contender for left-back will be needed.

On the right, Mikael Lustig is another who has won hearts for his evident joy in playing and winning for Celtic. Mikael has been an excellent servant for the club and will most likely start the season in possession of the jersey, especially as he can play in the centre, too.

There have been times when his gallusness in Scotland have not been matched by his resilience in Europe – our last Camp Nou adventure being one – but Lustig is another who has improved his technical game under Brendan and the coaching regime.

However, he has also had injury problems over the years (though there should be a shout-out to Celtic’s fitness and medical staff for their work over the last year) and he isn’t getting younger.

Relatively little has been seen of Cristian Gamboa since his signing – though what we have seen is that he is incredibly fast – and this may reflect a sense that he is not yet up to the task of taking the right-back jersey, even to protect Lustig’s body.

Do we need to sign a right-back? Probably, yes.

Midfield


We have an abundance of riches in midfield and – ironically – arguably too much.

All three of this blogs regular readers know that it has been a steadfast supporter of Scott Brown, a position that has made its lowly editor and sole writer smugger than a hug in a bearskin (artificial) rug over the last year.

Brown is the main man and will be for some time to come. A blind man listening to Radio Clyde could see that the £3m-signing of a 19-year-old Eboue Kouassi was intended to pave the way for a gradual transition for Scott.

Gradually, if Kouassi lives up to the billing, he will play more and more games while Brown will be used for crucial matches and rested occasionally.

If Scott is going to stay with Celtic for the hoped-for ten-in-a-row, it is only natural to expect his appearances to decline in number but be focussed on very significant games.

Nir Biton, on the other hand, will go. Biton is the most frustrating type of player. We have all seen what he can do but can’t rely on him to do it when the going gets tough. His “hamstring injury” in the 2016 Scottish Cup semi-final was almost matched by his “invisible midfielder” showing in Barcelona. Lustig stepped up; Biton didn’t.

With Stuart Armstrong, the only real question-mark is whether he wants to stay or would like to try European pastures new. No one can criticise his personal desires but he has a great opportunity to be part of an outstanding Celtic side.

That probably cannot be said for Gary Mackay-Steven, who joined Celtic with Armstrong. GMS has great talent but an apparent lack of self-belief that has probably held him back from fulfilling his true potential as a player.

He’s almost certain to go.

Liam Henderson, on the other hand, is a trickier one to call. When given his chance, like Ryan Christie, he has looked capable of stepping up but the competition is fierce in Celtic’s midfield.

Both Henderson and Christie have impressed on loan spells to Hibs and Aberdeen respectively. The question is: can they challenge for a place in Celtic’s crowded midfield area? If the coaching staff think not, both will be major additions to whatever teams they join.

Callum McGregor, on the other hand, has kept his position, improved when it looked to many as if he would never cut it above Scottish Premiership level and been on the verge of a Scotland cap, which he deserves.

But, there is still a question-mark over McGregor. There was a hint of it (though perhaps unfair) in the Scottish Cup Final. Callum was never born to be a left-back but when under attacking pressure he made panicked passes, putting his team under pressure.

He will hope never to play that position again but perhaps it points to something about him that other teams could exploit.

Playing in an advanced role, he is a potent weapon. But, if defending in the opponents’ half, would he reliably make calm, safe passes? McGregor could be a surprise exit, though his qualities are such that he would seem to be well worthy of the opportunity of being part of the squad.

On the left – well, isn’t it great that sometimes first-class players have career dips and come to Celtic? The comparison hasn’t been made so often but there are obvious parallels between Henrik Larrson’s career stalling at Feyenoord before being “rescued” at Celtic by a coach who understood him and Scott Sinclair’s journey to Celtic Park.

Like Henrik, having tasted disappointment, Scott Sinclair may just go on to be an even more important player in our history than anyone (other than a balloon blogger) could realistically suggest after one season.

Sinclair is a player of the quality who would ordinarily never have considered coming to Scottish football but will very likely stay for the ride, now that he has found his place.

Thank heavens for rich clubs signing great players and ignoring them.

As a back-up to Scotty? Virtually impossible but may be where Ryan Christie comes in. Expect Scotty to play a hell of a lot of games over the coming seasons.

On the right, well, if Patrick Roberts can somehow be kept, there is no question to answer. James Forrest is a highly-talented player who this blog once suggested run away from the club.

But the potential continued competition between Forrest and Roberts would seem to end any speculation about the wide right position.

That said, Paddy is going back to Manchester City and he is quite right to do so. To be a fly on the wall between him and Pep Guardiola when they discuss whether or not Paddy will be a mainstay of City next season.

But, as Roberts is not our player, another wide-right with goal-scoring and creating ability is a major priority.

One player not filling that role will probably be Johnny Hayes.

Hayes is a very good player and deserves respect. That said, some people seem to think that anyone who hears some words from Brendan in his ear is a potential signing target.

Much like Barrie Mackay before a tabloid linked £6m of Red Bull Leipzig’s cash to a player who was rarely played in the later stages of the season.

This is unfair on Hayes, who can damage any team but should probably be looking at a move to a team in the top third of the English championship, rather than Celtic.

Brendan’s signings have largely been speculating on young talent he believes he can develop (Dembele, Kouassi), players who have potential but who have under-achieved (Sinclair) or players who bring real top-level experience and quality (Toure).

Johnny Hayes doesn’t seem to fit with Brendan’s “plan” but that is no negative reflection on him.

Forwards

We need a forward. Correction: we need two forwards.

Moussa Dembele says he is staying and he can stay forever. This is not a blog that will advocate cashing in on players, no matter how much poppy is dangled.

If Moussa stays for the Champions League qualifiers, that will be great; for the European campaign, terrific.

But we need back-up and Leigh Griffiths has the potential to be that. Unfortunately, Leigh still seems to struggle with that propensity towards being a thorn in his manager’s flesh.

Never mind his whining about being substituted: what Brendan said a few months ago about conditioning in order to be ready to the intensity of first-team football has been almost lost in the feel-good around Celtic’s season.

Maybe I was the only one to wince when Leigh said that several people would celebrate the treble win for days and that he was one of them. A few beers after the season – sure. Talking on TV about benders may invite questions about professionalism.

We must sign at least two forwards – probably one young and one with top-quality experience.

Maybe someone who has done it all, doesn’t need the cash but would like to make a “football decision” before going to China?

Nah.

As you were, Celts.

Pt 1: Legitimate goals for the season ahead
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Wednesday, May 31, 2017

What now for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers? Pt 1 Legitimate goals for the season ahead

Well, the season which surpassed all understanding is done. Breathtaking, astonishing, Roy-of-the-Rovers stuff, topped off by Tom Rogic showing that his appreciation of high drama is as sharp as his shooting.

To all who played a part at Celtic Park over the past 12 months, thank you, well done and stay healthy. You’ll be getting calls for commemorative events in 20, 25, 30, 40 and 50 years time.

Now, to next season with hopes burning brightly and eyes on more glittering prizes.

But what should we realistically expect? (The silly season in the Scottish football media – is there any other kind? – will bring reported diktats from Desmond, swoops from down south and signing speculation to make you weep. Most of it will be unfounded garbage, much like the rest of this article.

Targets

Firstly, targeting the treble is usually ridiculous. Don’t get this wrong – Celtic should always intend to win any domestic tournament the club enters. But to expect to win all three again is just foolish.

Much as a self-confident man may truly believe that he has a reasonable chance of dating any of three desirable partners, it would be plain daft to be disappointed at not securing the romantic attentions of all three at the same time.

The smart man will direct his attentions to the best of the three and hope that, if disappointed, the next best will not prove to be out of reach. (It would be stretching the analogy to say that we should only hope to win one cup.)

It can be done but probably won’t. If Celtic end another season unbeaten, we should all wait for the space ships to take us away from this doomed planet as it would surely be a sign that the powers that kept the world turning were broken.

But to win the League and do so comfortably must be the number one target. The “comfort” part is important. Daylight between Celtic and Aberdeen (probably 15-20 points at the season’s end) takes pressure off players, allows some to be rested for what should be the late rounds of the Scottish Cup and lets Brendan Rodgers preserve some of the key performers by sparing them the last 15-30 minutes of games when their bodies are spent.

Prediction: 1st Celtic – P 38 W 29 D 6 L 3 Pts 93 (Stats based on the “Guff” system of football forecasting.

Scottish Cup

Having (hopefully) won the league in April, we should be red hot favourites to lift the Scottish Cup to make it a double.

By that time, we should be able to focus on the late rounds with the luxury of not needing points or defending an unbeaten run.

Who would we face in the final? Probably Aberdeen or Hibs, who I expect to make a real go of it in their return to the top division, possibly finishing third behind Aberdeen.

The major likelihood of avoiding one of these in the final would be if we were drawn away from home to both in the early rounds. Cups, of course, reflect the luck of the draw as well as form and Hearts, The Rangers or St Johnstone or a few others could all feature.

League Cup

This is the least prestigious of the three tournaments and the one most likely to lead to disappointment, ending any hopes of back-to-back trebles.

Again, Aberdeen or Hibs seem like the most probable winners, but any team in the top flight has a chance, including the two smaller Glasgow clubs.

The major reason for this is that Celtic are likely to be heavily-involved in European competition and strongly focussed on the League campaign. Something usually gives in those circumstances, with players on the fringes of the first team likely to feature.

So, with Celtic’s the scalp that everyone wants to take, a “shock” exit around the semis or quarter-finals seems a strong possibility.
Prediction:
Headlines such as: “Celtic have been shown not to be infrangible – other teams now know how to beat them.”

“Shock cup exit shows cracks in the Rodgers master-plan.”

Europe

“ I think we can win the Big Cup. Semi-finals, at least. Maybe the quarters.”
We all know the guy from the pub. He’s the same one who always answers: “11 Jimmy Johnstones” when chat turns to picking your all-time greatest football team.

Tell him (it’s invariably a he) to get a grip.

We are very good, our improvement has been beyond what just about any of us could ever have hoped for – but the gap in the league table doesn’t reflect how close we are to being a top European side.

Put your cuppa down because we’re not up to that standard – yet. But we’ll get better.

The thing about playing significantly inferior teams four times is that you can emphasise your (notional) 40% superiority four times a season. Celtic were 30 points better than the second-placed team but how well would Aberdeen do in any of the top German, Spanish, Italian, French or English leagues?

They’d almost certainly be relegated.

The Dutch, Portuguese, Belgian or Russian leagues, for example? Probably around mid-table.

So, don’t make the last season’s heroics an albatross around Brendan Rodgers’s neck. Champions league qualification is not assured by any means.
We’ll probably go into the last qualifying round as favourites with odds, depending on the opposition of somewhere around 55-70% success.

In the best-case scenario, we’ll have a tough tie with a real possibility of going out.

Personally, I think we’ll get there because of the improvement we’ve already seen, the fitness and cohesion of the squad, the quality we possess and – above all – the fact that we have a top-quality manager and coaching team.

But there will be a few butterflies.

We should realistically aim to qualify for the group stages and then be playing for 3 or 4th place. And that’s where I think we’ll be.

That will probably be clear after four matches, should we qualify. If we are in with a chance of second place after match four and secure third overall, that would represent a highly-successful season.

We could then look forward to some intriguing match-ups in the Europa League.

Looking ahead

What is perhaps more interesting is the longer-term targets – over Brendan’s seasons three, four and five.

In the past 14 years, we have reached a UEFA Cup Final and the last 16 of the Champions League twice. Be in no doubt that Brendan will want to go one better.

That would entail, obviously, reaching the last eight of the Champions League or winning the Europa League.

Targeting the Champions League last 16 should be for season 2018/19.

But for the last eight or a Europa League win, look to 2020/21.

That’s a major task but it should be where we hope our trajectory to take us.

So, for next season: a League and Scottish Cup double with a 3rd-place finish in the Champions League and a respectable showing in the Europa.

No pressure!

Coming soon -- Pt 2: Squad ins and outs to achieve our goals.
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